This index organises all research posts by theme and type, making it easy to navigate the evidence base for The Next Wave. Use the search bar below to find posts by keyword, or browse by category using the links.
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📚 Research Case Studies
Historical and contemporary case studies that test the book’s framework against real-world evidence. Covers five centuries of technological revolutions, LAC commodity and industrialisation cases, small island economies, and international comparators from Korea to Germany.
🔬 Framework Essays
Conceptual posts that introduce and apply the book’s three analytical lenses: the Human Ecosystem Model, evolutionary economics (variation, selection, diffusion), and state-led transition theory. Start here if you are new to the book’s framework.
📋 Policy Briefs
Actionable posts for policymakers, mapping case study lessons to specific country types — from resource-rich large economies to small island states. Covers green transitions, digital transformation, industrial policy, and state capability building.
Browse by theme
Understanding the Framework
These Framework Essay posts introduce the book’s core analytical tools — evolutionary economics, the Human Ecosystem Model, and the five state functions for change — and explain the patterns of technological revolutions across history.
Five Historical Technological Waves (Chapter 5 evidence)
Posts on the five global revolutions: the First Industrial Revolution (Britain 1760–1830), the Age of Railways and Steam (1820–1880), Steel, Electricity and Telephone (1870–1920), Cars, Planes and Mass Production (1920–1970), and the Digital Revolution (1970–2020). Also includes a summary post on 300 years of revolutions and a forward-looking post on 2020–2070.
LAC Success Cases (Chapter 6 evidence)
Posts on cases where LAC countries built new capabilities or made successful transitions: Costa Rica’s distinctive development trajectory (1950–2010, including the Intel story), Uruguay’s energy transition (2010–2024), Chile’s renewable leap, Brazil’s renewable transformation, Mexico’s mobile leapfrog, and more.
LAC Challenges and Missed Opportunities (Chapter 7 evidence)
Posts on cases where resource endowments failed to deliver transformation: Peru’s guano and Chile’s nitrates, Venezuela’s oil boom, Ecuador and Trinidad oil cases, Brazil’s rubber vs. coffee contrast, Mexico under Díaz, Argentina’s export boom and its limits, and multiple Caribbean and Central American cases.
International Comparators
Non-LAC case studies that illuminate the book’s framework through contrast and comparison: Taiwan and Korea’s industrial miracle, Japan’s savings-led growth and land-tax industrialisation, Germany’s industrial rise and post-war recovery, Britain’s early industrialisation cycles, Estonia’s digital state, Norway’s EV transition, Denmark’s renewable shift, and China’s rapid scaling.
State Strategy and Getting Started (Chapters 9–11 evidence)
Posts on how states can build capabilities and manage transitions: the five state functions for institutional change, Chile’s copper and salmon sectors, Brazil’s Cerrado model, forestry institutions, green transition strategies, and digital transformation case studies.
All posts
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Costa Rica (1950-2010): a Distinctive Development Trajectory.
In 1948, Costa Rica redirected the money it had been spending on its military into schools and hospitals. Emerging from a brief civil war in 1948, the country abolished its army, redirected public resources to schools, health, and infrastructure, and developed a policy mix that combined social inclusion with environmental protection. Between 1950 and 2010,…
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Booms Without Transformation: Peru’s Guano and Chile’s Nitrates
Latin America has long been rich in natural resources, and for much of its history, those resources have been presented as a promise of progress. In the nineteenth century, Peru and Chile occupied a privileged position in the global economy because they controlled something the industrial world desperately needed: nitrogen. First through guano exported from…
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What Coffee Did That Rubber Didn’t: Brazil, 1879–1912
Between 1879 and 1912, Brazil experienced two commodity booms that unfolded simultaneously within the same country and under the same global economic forces, yet produced radically different long-term outcomes. Rubber and coffee both connected Brazil to world markets, generated export revenues, and attracted labor and capital. But only one of these commodities helped build durable…
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Mexico 1876–1911 Order and Growth Without Inclusion: Revolution
Mexico grew faster between 1876 and 1911 than at any other moment in the nineteenth century. Railways spread across the country, cities modernized, and exports expanded rapidly with foreign investment, replicating patterns seen in many industrializing economies. Under Porfirio Díaz, Mexico achieved order, economic growth, and integration into international trade. However, this growth rested on…
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Reducing Risk, Enabling Scale: Argentina’s Export Boom 1880-1914
Across Latin America, governments face a familiar challenge: how to accelerate growth under intense global competition, technological change, and constrained public resources. Argentina’s export boom between 1880 and 1914 offers a concrete case of how rapid growth can occur when markets, institutions, and the state align in support of export-led, integrated development. At the end…
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The Great Shift: 2020–2070 in Latin America and the Caribbean
Chile exports US$50 billion in copper annually. At the same time, Chile imports the software that runs its mines, manages its power grid, and processes its financial transactions. By 2050, which side of this export–import equation will matter more? Energy systems are shifting quickly. Jobs are changing. Innovative technologies are emerging and spreading. These changes…
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300 Years of Technological Revolutions Reshaping Nations
Technological revolutions do not just introduce modern technology and business innovations. They reorganize the entire economic ecosystem. They accelerate flows of energy, materials, capital, and knowledge. Over the last three centuries, successive technological revolutions have increased global energy use by more than an order of magnitude. They hit fast, scale hard, and reorganize entire economies…
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The Costs of Technological Change
Latin America and the Caribbean have experienced multiple technological waves, beginning with steam and railways. The region has been more of a spectator to these waves than a participant, arriving late to the party of innovative technologies. The first railway line in Britain appeared in 1825; LAC built its first lines between 1850 and 1860.…
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From Microchips to Megatrends: The Global Shifts of 1970–2020
Between 1970 and 2020, the world changed faster than at any other time in human history. Microprocessors, digital sensors, personal computers, the internet, smartphones, and cloud computing all emerged over the course of five decades. The 1971 Intel 4004 chip contained just 2,300 transistors; by 2020, Apple’s M1 chip held 16 billion. These technologies now…
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Engines of Change 1920-1970 Cars, Planes, Fridges, Assembly Lines
The human ecosystem changed fundamentally across many countries between 1920 and 1970. Much of what we recognize in modern life emerged during this period: cars, planes, refrigerators, televisions, and container ships. These innovations reshaped cities, reconfigured trade routes, and reordered the global hierarchy. The United States led these transformations, followed by West Germany, France, Italy,…
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Third Technology Wave, 1870-1920: Steel, Electricity, & Telephone
One hundred and fifty years ago, countries faced challenges like those confronting Latin America and the Caribbean today. Beginning in 1870, a group of nations chose to enter the next phase of the Industrial Revolution and underwent rapid, far-reaching transformation. By 1920, these countries were replete with steel mills, rail systems, electricity generation and transmission,…
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Railways, Rail Engines, Steam Ships, and Telegraph
Between 1820 and 1880, leading industrial economies transitioned from waiting weeks for messages and materials to arrive to waiting minutes for messages and hours for materials. Within a single lifetime, cities exploded in size, countries built vast railway networks, and steamships increasingly replaced sailing ships on major cargo routes. Some nations seized the moment and…
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First Industrial Revolution: Mines, Canals, Steam, and Textiles
From 1760 to 1830, Britain did not just industrialize; it rewired its economy, society, and infrastructure. In about 50 years, the country moved from cottage industries and water wheels to steam-powered factories, canal transport networks, and global trade dominance. Britain’s share of world industrial output rose from modest to dominant over this period. Britain’s economy…
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Economic Evolution and Revolution: Resources
All economies change over time. Most of the time, that change is slow and incremental. But under certain conditions, an economy can shift rapidly — almost explosively — into a new mode of creating value. These moments are economic revolutions: system-wide reorganizations of production, technology, and social coordination. During these periods, annual growth rates can…
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Spreading Successful Ideas Across Economies
The most significant difference between Latin American and Caribbean economies that move forward and those that fall behind is not necessarily how many innovative ideas they generate, but how quickly innovative ideas spread across people, firms, and sectors. When promising routines and technologies remain trapped in a few places, productivity stalls, inequality widens, and public…
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Latin America and the Caribbean: Three Centuries of Competition
For more than 300 years, powerful economic selection forces have shaped Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Much like natural selection in biology, competition has repeatedly rewarded firms, sectors, and countries with the right “traits” — capabilities, institutions, technologies — while punishing those that fail to adapt. These forces have determined which firms thrive, which…
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Variation Matters: Diversity Shapes Economies in Latin America
Variation and diversity define the world people experience every day. They are also the foundation of how economies evolve. Differences across people, firms, industries, and countries shape how quickly societies adapt, how they respond to shocks, and why policies succeed in one place but not another. Variation is central to productivity growth, innovation, competitiveness, job…
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Why Economies Change – Lessons from Evolutionary Economics
Over forty years ago, Nelson and Winter argued that economies evolve through a process like biological evolution: firms follow routines, experiment with new ways of doing things, and those that succeed grow while others decline. Technological revolutions accelerate this process by reshaping industries, altering competitive advantages, and shifting geopolitical power. Many analysts argue that the…
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Why Technologies Rise, Transform the World, and Eventually Fade.
Every so often, societies experience periods of accelerated change. Innovative technologies emerge that do more than improve daily life — they reshape economies, reorganize communities, and alter how people relate to one another. In these moments, the decisions that individuals, businesses, and institutions make determine whether they adapt, stagnate, or fall behind. Today, we are…
