{"id":337,"date":"2026-03-26T16:30:54","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T20:30:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/techrevlac.org\/?p=337"},"modified":"2026-06-04T10:20:52","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T14:20:52","slug":"haciendo-que-las-energias-renovables-funcionen-la-transformacion-de-brasil-2010-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/techrevlac.org\/es\/blog\/making-renewables-work-brazils-transformation-2010-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Haciendo que las renovables funcionen: La transformaci\u00f3n de Brasil, 2010\u20132025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Los cambios recientes en el sistema el\u00e9ctrico de Brasil ofrecen un claro caso de estudio de r\u00e1pida ampliaci\u00f3n de energ\u00edas renovables bajo restricciones reales, incluidas sequ\u00edas, altas tasas de inter\u00e9s internas y desaf\u00edos en el uso del suelo. Entre 2010 y 2025, Brasil a\u00f1adi\u00f3 m\u00e1s de 30 GW de capacidad e\u00f3lica y decenas de gigavatios de capacidad solar, incluida la fotovoltaica distribuida. Brasil cambi\u00f3 fundamentalmente qui\u00e9n produce la electricidad y c\u00f3mo opera la red. Esto estudio de caso<\/a> muestra c\u00f3mo bajar los precios a trav\u00e9s de la contrataci\u00f3n competitiva, movilizar capital a trav\u00e9s de finanzas para el desarrollo y desarrollar capacidades industriales. Tambi\u00e9n ilustra desaf\u00edos \u2014como la interrupci\u00f3n, los cuellos de botella en licencias y los conflictos distributivos\u2014 que pueden descarrilar el proceso de transici\u00f3n. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

La regi\u00f3n ya cuenta con matrices energ\u00e9ticas relativamente limpias y muchos pa\u00edses est\u00e1n comprometidos a expandir las energ\u00edas renovables, pero carecen de la capacidad institucional y de infraestructura para hacer que las energ\u00edas renovables sean confiables y socialmente leg\u00edtimas. La experiencia de Brasil demuestra las ventajas de la creaci\u00f3n de mercados y las desventajas de los procesos de permisos y las consideraciones de equidad que retrasan el despliegue.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los planes de energ\u00eda renovable deben ofrecer cuatro resultados simult\u00e1neamente: (1) suministro de bajo costo, (2) resiliencia a la sequ\u00eda, (3) contextos de inversi\u00f3n bancaria y (4) salvaguardias sociales y ambientales cre\u00edbles, sin depender de subsidios fiscales insostenibles. transformaci\u00f3n sist\u00e9mica<\/a>, no solo la adquisici\u00f3n de tecnolog\u00eda. Por lo tanto, se necesitan cambios en las reglas del mercado, las redes, la financiaci\u00f3n y la gobernanza para permitir que la e\u00f3lica y la solar escalen sin crear activos varados o conflictos sociales. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Este blog examina c\u00f3mo ha cambiado el ecosistema humano que rodea la energ\u00eda renovable, qu\u00e9 impuls\u00f3 esos cambios y qu\u00e9 hizo el estado para implementarlos. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Desplazamiento de activos, flujos y riesgos<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Los capitales se desplazaron de plantas hidroel\u00e9ctricas<\/a> hacia una cartera m\u00e1s diversa, que incluye energ\u00eda e\u00f3lica, solar a gran escala y solar distribuida masivamente. La capacidad e\u00f3lica aument\u00f3 de aproximadamente 1 GW en 2010 a m\u00e1s de 33 GW para 2025, aprovechando la estaci\u00f3n seca del noreste para mitigar la variabilidad de la energ\u00eda hidroel\u00e9ctrica. La energ\u00eda solar distribuida se expandi\u00f3 r\u00e1pidamente de menos de 1 GW en 2018 a m\u00e1s de 40 GW para 2025, con 3.7 millones de sistemas a peque\u00f1a escala instalados en hogares y negocios. Esta diversificaci\u00f3n respondi\u00f3 directamente a las restricciones inducidas por la sequ\u00eda en la producci\u00f3n hidroel\u00e9ctrica, con la energ\u00eda e\u00f3lica y solar asumiendo mayores proporciones en la combinaci\u00f3n de generaci\u00f3n. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los flujos de capital pasaron de pr\u00e9stamos centralizados en el Estado y una planificaci\u00f3n centralizada a finanzas mixtas para nuevos segmentos de mercado y flujos de red m\u00e1s complejos. Las finanzas evolucionaron de una fuerte dependencia del BNDES a estrategias de mitigaci\u00f3n de riesgos destinadas a atraer inversionistas institucionales, incluyendo bonos verdes, con las finanzas p\u00fablicas desempe\u00f1ando un papel catalizador. Los flujos de electricidad cambiaron a medida que la energ\u00eda e\u00f3lica del Noreste y la energ\u00eda solar de m\u00faltiples regiones alimentaron el sistema nacional. La generaci\u00f3n detr\u00e1s del medidor ayud\u00f3 a abordar parte del desaf\u00edo de suministro, pero tambi\u00e9n cre\u00f3 desaf\u00edos para los modelos de ingresos de las empresas de servicios p\u00fablicos. El conocimiento se profundiz\u00f3 a medida que las empresas adaptaron las tecnolog\u00edas a las condiciones locales, por ejemplo, modificando las turbinas e\u00f3licas para que coincidieran con los reg\u00edmenes de viento y la turbulencia de Brasil. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Las instituciones coevolucionaron con estos cambios. Surgieron nuevas tensiones en torno a Uso del suelo para parques e\u00f3licos<\/a>, la asequibilidad de la electricidad y los riesgos de los ciclos de inversi\u00f3n caracterizados por el auge y la ca\u00edda. El regulador nacional de energ\u00eda y la agencia de planificaci\u00f3n energ\u00e9tica de Brasil institucionalizaron las subastas competitivas de electricidad, estableciendo un referente en toda Am\u00e9rica Latina en materia de transparencia en los precios y confianza de los inversionistas. Las tensiones sociales fueron particularmente agudas en los lugares donde los parques e\u00f3licos se superpon\u00edan con comunidades tradicionales y requer\u00edan una gesti\u00f3n activa. El Plan de Transformaci\u00f3n Ecol\u00f3gica 2025 destac\u00f3 la necesidad de una transici\u00f3n justa, haciendo hincapi\u00e9 en la equidad y los impactos en las comunidades, as\u00ed como en la creaci\u00f3n potencial de 2 millones de empleos y un aumento de 0,81 % en el PIB. La sequ\u00eda y la crisis h\u00eddrica de 2021 aceleraron la diversificaci\u00f3n, mientras que los aumentos en las facturas de electricidad de aproximadamente un 201 % entre 2021 y 2023 intensificaron la presi\u00f3n para reducir los costos mediante las energ\u00edas renovables. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crisis, mercados y opciones de pol\u00edtica<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Las pol\u00edticas energ\u00e9ticas brasile\u00f1as fomentaron deliberadamente la experimentaci\u00f3n en tecnolog\u00edas y modelos de negocio. Los mercados y las crisis seleccionaron entonces los enfoques m\u00e1s efectivos, que difundido a nivel nacional y m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de Brasil<\/a>. Pol\u00edtica generada diversidad en tecnolog\u00edas<\/a>, estructuras de propiedad y soluciones de sistemas. Las plantas h\u00edbridas que combinan energ\u00eda e\u00f3lica, solar y almacenamiento han surgido para abordar los corredores de transmisi\u00f3n restringidos en el noreste. El mercado de energ\u00eda libre se expandi\u00f3, permitiendo acuerdos de compra de energ\u00eda que eludieron a las empresas de servicios p\u00fablicos tradicionales para los grandes consumidores. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Las subastas y las sequ\u00edas empujaron al sistema a favorecer proyectos de bajo costo, complementarios y financiables, en contraste con la fragilidad de la gran hidroelectricidad. Las subastas competitivas redujeron los precios hasta que la energ\u00eda e\u00f3lica y solar superaron a las nuevas adiciones t\u00e9rmicas; para 2024, los costos nivelados de la nueva energ\u00eda e\u00f3lica y solar eran menores que el mantenimiento de costosa capacidad de respaldo basada en gas natural. Las sequ\u00edas de 2014 y 2021 forzaron un cambio sist\u00e9mico, penalizando a los sistemas que carec\u00edan de diversificaci\u00f3n o garant\u00edas de energ\u00eda firme. La asequibilidad se convirti\u00f3 en un impulsor principal, ya que el aumento de las facturas de electricidad increment\u00f3 la presi\u00f3n por una generaci\u00f3n directa de menor costo y energ\u00edas renovables diversificadas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modelos de negocio y sistemas de generaci\u00f3n que demostraron ser efectivos se propagaron por Brasil e influyeron pares regionales<\/a>. modelo de subasta<\/a> enfoques de adquisiciones informadas en Colombia y Argentina. La infraestructura, en particular las l\u00edneas de transmisi\u00f3n de alto voltaje, fue fundamental para trasladar la energ\u00eda renovable del norte y noreste a los centros de demanda en el sureste. La difusi\u00f3n del almacenamiento se aceler\u00f3 tras los avances regulatorios a partir de 2023, orientados a gestionar la creciente participaci\u00f3n de la generaci\u00f3n solar variable. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00f3mo el estado hizo que las energ\u00edas renovables fueran bancables<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

El gobierno de Brasil no actu\u00f3 como un regulador pasivo, sino como un creador de mercado y un amortiguador de riesgos. Este enfoque se centr\u00f3 en funciones estatales espec\u00edficas que impulsaron la inversi\u00f3n privada, al tiempo que se manten\u00eda la fiabilidad y la legitimidad social. El Estado proporcion\u00f3 orientaci\u00f3n a trav\u00e9s de la planificaci\u00f3n a largo plazo y la continuidad institucional, ancladas en inversiones que perduraron m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de los ciclos pol\u00edticos. El Plan de Transformaci\u00f3n Ecol\u00f3gica 2025 articul\u00f3 esta misi\u00f3n, proyectando hasta 2 millones de empleos y un aumento anual promedio del PIB de 0,81 % en escenarios de implementaci\u00f3n total. Las entidades de planificaci\u00f3n y los operadores del sistema dieron prioridad a la confiabilidad. La independencia del Operador Nacional del Sistema El\u00e9ctrico fue fundamental para amortiguar la inestabilidad pol\u00edtica. La sequ\u00eda de 2021 \u2014la peor en aproximadamente 90 a\u00f1os\u2014 agot\u00f3 gravemente los embalses hidroel\u00e9ctricos, lo que desencaden\u00f3 medidas de emergencia y reforz\u00f3 la diversificaci\u00f3n como estrategia de seguridad energ\u00e9tica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El estado model\u00f3 la arquitectura del mercado a trav\u00e9s de subastas, legislaci\u00f3n de generaci\u00f3n distribuida, est\u00e1ndares de bancabilidad y gesti\u00f3n adaptativa continua. Las subastas inversas proporcionaron descubrimiento de precios transparente y contratos a largo plazo. La legislaci\u00f3n de generaci\u00f3n distribuida aument\u00f3 la certeza regulatoria y apoy\u00f3 la r\u00e1pida expansi\u00f3n de la energ\u00eda solar. El estado tambi\u00e9n promovi\u00f3 taxonom\u00edas verdes y marcos de mercado de carbono alineados con est\u00e1ndares internacionales.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El estado moviliz\u00f3 capital para la inversi\u00f3n p\u00fablica y ecosistemas de innovaci\u00f3n, pero las restricciones de la red se convirtieron en el cuello de botella limitante. Pr\u00e9stamos concesionales del BNDES<\/a> con requisitos de contenido local que apoyaron a los cl\u00fasteres de fabricaci\u00f3n de energ\u00eda e\u00f3lica nacional. La transmisi\u00f3n e interconexi\u00f3n surgieron como bienes p\u00fablicos estrat\u00e9gicos, sin embargo, la expansi\u00f3n de la red se retras\u00f3 en relaci\u00f3n con el despliegue de energ\u00edas renovables variables, contribuyendo a la limitaci\u00f3n de la producci\u00f3n. Eco-Invest introdujo mecanismos para cubrir el riesgo cambiario y reducir la exposici\u00f3n a divisas de los inversores extranjeros. La investigaci\u00f3n y el desarrollo p\u00fablicos apoyaron la agrivoltaica y la energ\u00eda solar flotante en embalses, con el objetivo de convertir los activos hidroel\u00e9ctricos en centros de generaci\u00f3n h\u00edbrida. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tres lecciones de una gran transici\u00f3n de sistemas.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

La transici\u00f3n de Brasil de 2010 a 2025 muestra que el \u00e9xito de las energ\u00edas renovables depende de las instituciones \u2014normas de mercado, capacidad de planificaci\u00f3n, estructuras financieras y salvaguardias sociales\u2014 y no solo de la capacidad instalada. Los tres mensajes clave son:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00b7 Utiliza subastas y contratos claros para reducir costos, pero acomp\u00e1\u00f1alos con capacidad de red y de permisos, o las interrupciones y los retrasos destruir\u00e1n el valor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El financiamiento para el desarrollo puede catalizar la inversi\u00f3n privada y el aprendizaje industrial, pero la dependencia excesiva presenta riesgos fiscales: dise\u00f1e una trayectoria gradual hacia el financiamiento a trav\u00e9s de los mercados de capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La legitimidad social es una restricci\u00f3n del sistema: los derechos territoriales, el reparto de beneficios y la asequibilidad deben estar integrados en la arquitectura del mercado, no ser considerados como ocurrencias posteriores en la concesi\u00f3n de licencias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brasil demostr\u00f3 que un sistema con gran dependencia hidroel\u00e9ctrica puede evolucionar hacia una potencia renovable diversificada. El siguiente paso, para Brasil y la regi\u00f3n, es hacer que la transici\u00f3n no solo sea r\u00e1pida y de bajo costo, sino tambi\u00e9n segura para la red, fiscalmente duradera y socialmente justa.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Recent changes in Brazil\u2019s power system provide a clear case study of rapid renewable-scale-up under real constraints, including droughts, high domestic interest rates, and land-use challenges. Between 2010 and 2025, Brazil added more than 30 GW of wind and tens of gigawatts of solar capacity, including distributed photovoltaics. Brazil fundamentally changed who produces electricity and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":278841165,"featured_media":339,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_hide_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_featured_image_duplicate_dismissed":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1712],"tags":[1415,1418,1384,1425,1424,1428,1391],"class_list":["post-337","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-policy-brief","tag-brazil","tag-development-finance","tag-energy-transition","tag-grid-infrastructure","tag-renewable-electricity","tag-social-license","tag-state-capacity"],"yoast_head":"\nBrazil 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In severe years, Uruguay could spend as much as 2% of GDP on energy\u2026","rel":"","context":"En \u00abPolicy Brief\u00bb","block_context":{"text":"Policy Brief","link":"https:\/\/techrevlac.org\/es\/blog\/category\/policy-brief\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Aerial view of wind turbines, a hydroelectric dam, transmission lines, and a power substation set within Uruguay\u2019s rural landscape.","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/techrevlac.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-26-at-4.18.17-PM.png?fit=1182%2C788&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/techrevlac.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-26-at-4.18.17-PM.png?fit=1182%2C788&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/techrevlac.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-26-at-4.18.17-PM.png?fit=1182%2C788&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/techrevlac.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-26-at-4.18.17-PM.png?fit=1182%2C788&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/techrevlac.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-26-at-4.18.17-PM.png?fit=1182%2C788&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/techrevlac.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Screenshot-2026-03-26-at-4.27.59-PM.png?fit=1180%2C786&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/techrevlac.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/337","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/techrevlac.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/techrevlac.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/techrevlac.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/278841165"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/techrevlac.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=337"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/techrevlac.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/337\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2095,"href":"https:\/\/techrevlac.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/337\/revisions\/2095"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/techrevlac.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/339"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/techrevlac.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=337"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/techrevlac.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=337"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/techrevlac.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=337"}],"curies":[{"name":"\u00a1Bien jugado!","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}