{"id":1548,"date":"2026-05-21T13:26:12","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T17:26:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/techrevlac.org\/?p=1548"},"modified":"2026-06-25T12:36:18","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T16:36:18","slug":"como-dinamarca-cambio-a-energia-renovable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/techrevlac.org\/es\/blog\/how-denmark-shifted-to-renewable-energy\/","title":{"rendered":"C\u00f3mo Dinamarca Transicion\u00f3 Hacia la Energ\u00eda Renovable."},"content":{"rendered":"

Las subastas funcionaron, el transporte se paraliz\u00f3.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

La transici\u00f3n energ\u00e9tica de Dinamarca es importante ahora porque muchos pa\u00edses enfrentan la misma restricci\u00f3n: c\u00f3mo retirar capital de los sistemas de combustibles f\u00f3siles sin quebrar los mercados. El contraste es marcado. Dinamarca construy\u00f3 uno de los sistemas de energ\u00eda renovable m\u00e1s impulsados por subastas del mundo, pero la electrificaci\u00f3n del transporte se rezag\u00f3 durante a\u00f1os. La principal barrera no fue la tecnolog\u00eda. Las principales barreras fueron la coordinaci\u00f3n pol\u00edtica y financiera entre sectores.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dinamarca abord\u00f3 esto a trav\u00e9s de pactos bipartidistas, descubrimiento de costos liderado por subastas y desriesgo respaldado por el estado. Esa combinaci\u00f3n redirigi\u00f3 capital a escala. La energ\u00eda avanz\u00f3 primero porque los inversores pod\u00edan ver que las reglas se mantendr\u00edan. El transporte se retras\u00f3 debido a la acci\u00f3n desigual del estado. Este blog explica qu\u00e9 cambi\u00f3, qu\u00e9 lo impuls\u00f3 y qu\u00e9 hizo el estado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00f3mo se manifest\u00f3 el cambio.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

El capital se traslad\u00f3 de activos f\u00f3siles.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Dinamarca capital reasignado<\/a> entre 2005 y 2026 al reducir los activos f\u00f3siles y expandir la infraestructura renovable. La generaci\u00f3n f\u00f3sil centralizada cay\u00f3 de casi 10 GW alrededor de 2005 a 5,1 GW para 2021. La capacidad e\u00f3lica aument\u00f3 de aproximadamente 3,1 GW a 7,4 GW para 2024. La energ\u00eda se desplaz\u00f3 primero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los sistemas el\u00e9ctricos tambi\u00e9n cambiaron porque Energinet invirti\u00f3 en interconexiones HVDC y HVAC con sistemas vecinos. Los flujos financieros tambi\u00e9n se desplazaron. La tarifa de Obligaci\u00f3n de Servicio P\u00fablico alcanz\u00f3 los 5.800 millones de coronas danesas en 2013 y luego se traslad\u00f3 al presupuesto general para 2021. Ese cambio redujo la presi\u00f3n sobre las facturas de electricidad al tiempo que se manten\u00eda el apoyo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El capital de transporte se qued\u00f3 rezagado al principio. El n\u00famero de veh\u00edculos el\u00e9ctricos aument\u00f3 de 79 en 2010 a 220.000 en 2022, pero el crecimiento se aceler\u00f3 solo despu\u00e9s pol\u00edtica estabilizada<\/a>. El contraste importa porque muestra d\u00f3nde el estado cre\u00f3 condiciones cre\u00edbles<\/a>, y d\u00f3nde no lo hizo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Las reglas cambiaron para respaldar las energ\u00edas renovables.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Dinamarca reestructur\u00f3 sus instituciones en torno a un modelo que da prioridad a las energ\u00edas renovables. Los acuerdos energ\u00e9ticos multipartidistas de 2008, 2012 y 2018 establecieron objetivos y formalizaron compromisos. Dichos acuerdos inclu\u00edan el objetivo de obtener 55% de energ\u00eda de fuentes renovables para 2030. Ofrecieron a los inversionistas una visi\u00f3n m\u00e1s clara de la demanda futura y de las intenciones del gobierno.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Ley del Clima de 2020 estableci\u00f3 un objetivo de reducci\u00f3n de emisiones de 70% con car\u00e1cter jur\u00eddicamente vinculante. Adem\u00e1s, cre\u00f3 un \u201cciclo anual\u201d que exig\u00eda actualizaciones de las pol\u00edticas y cambios en la financiaci\u00f3n. La contrataci\u00f3n de energ\u00eda e\u00f3lica marina pas\u00f3 a realizarse mediante subastas con contratos por diferencia (CfD), que establec\u00edan c\u00f3mo el Estado y los promotores compart\u00edan el riesgo. La estructura corporativa tambi\u00e9n cambi\u00f3, ya que DONG Energy se convirti\u00f3 en \u00d8rsted mediante la venta de activos y la movilizaci\u00f3n de capital privado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nuevos riesgos aparecieron a medida que el sistema cambi\u00f3.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

La transici\u00f3n cambi\u00f3 las coaliciones pol\u00edticas y expuso a los hogares y las empresas a nuevos riesgos. Los acuerdos multipartidistas estabilizaron la pol\u00edtica en ciclos electorales y anclaron las expectativas de inversi\u00f3n a largo plazo. Sin embargo, la crisis energ\u00e9tica europea despu\u00e9s de 2021 elev\u00f3 la volatilidad de los precios mayoristas. Eso cambi\u00f3 el comportamiento del consumidor y puso bajo presi\u00f3n los balances despu\u00e9s de las reformas de subsidios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los shocks de pol\u00edtica de transporte fueron m\u00e1s agudos. El 2016 Impuesto para veh\u00edculos el\u00e9ctricos<\/a> provocaron un colapso en las ventas, por lo que la pol\u00edtica se revirti\u00f3 r\u00e1pidamente. Los cuellos de botella tambi\u00e9n crecieron a medida que aumentaba la penetraci\u00f3n de las energ\u00edas renovables. Los retrasos en la electrificaci\u00f3n del transporte y proyectos paralizados como las islas energ\u00e9ticas revelaron los l\u00edmites de la capacidad de adaptaci\u00f3n del sistema.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00bfQu\u00e9 impuls\u00f3 el cambio?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Dinamarca prob\u00f3 varias rutas a la vez.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Dinamarca ampli\u00f3 sus opciones probando diferentes tecnolog\u00edas y pol\u00edticas en diversos sectores. Las empresas de servicios p\u00fablicos probaron varias rutas de descarbonizaci\u00f3n t\u00e9rmica, incluida la conversi\u00f3n de biomasa, la valorizaci\u00f3n energ\u00e9tica de residuos y las bombas de calor a gran escala. El Estado tambi\u00e9n cambi\u00f3 las reglas fiscales para los veh\u00edculos el\u00e9ctricos, pasando de exenciones totales a una tributaci\u00f3n escalonada y luego a la estabilizaci\u00f3n. Las subastas de energ\u00eda e\u00f3lica marina a\u00f1adieron otra capa de variaci\u00f3n, ya que las empresas compitieron bajo reglas comunes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Esta experimentaci\u00f3n cre\u00f3 un conjunto m\u00e1s amplio de opciones t\u00e9cnicas y financieras. Tambi\u00e9n demostr\u00f3 qu\u00e9 instrumentos pod\u00edan escalar y cu\u00e1les no. Las subastas importaban<\/a> aqu\u00ed porque obligaron a una comparaci\u00f3n directa entre las ofertas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La competencia y las reglas redujeron el campo.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Presiones de selecci\u00f3n<\/a> intensificado por la competencia y las restricciones pol\u00edticas. Adquisici\u00f3n basada en subasta<\/a> descubrimiento de costos forzado, lo que redujo los precios de la energ\u00eda e\u00f3lica marina desde los primeros proyectos hasta ofertas hist\u00f3ricamente bajas e incluso precios negativos en licitaciones posteriores. Los mandatos regulatorios tambi\u00e9n eliminaron las opciones de combustibles f\u00f3siles. Los planes municipales de calefacci\u00f3n y los calendarios de eliminaci\u00f3n gradual del carb\u00f3n sacaron del sistema los activos no conformes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los shocks externos a\u00f1adieron presi\u00f3n. La crisis energ\u00e9tica europea envi\u00f3 se\u00f1ales de precios m\u00e1s fuertes a hogares y empresas, por lo que la adaptaci\u00f3n se aceler\u00f3. Sin embargo, el transporte sigui\u00f3 un camino diferente. La inestabilidad fiscal debilit\u00f3 la selecci\u00f3n al reducir la confianza de inversionistas y consumidores, lo que reforz\u00f3 el rezago del transporte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los modelos exitosos se difunden por el sistema.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

La difusi\u00f3n se aceler\u00f3 a trav\u00e9s de la replicaci\u00f3n institucional y la integraci\u00f3n entre sistemas. La reestructuraci\u00f3n de DONG Energy en \u00d8rsted cre\u00f3 un modelo para reciclaje de capital<\/a>, lo cual permiti\u00f3 la reinversi\u00f3n continua en energ\u00eda e\u00f3lica marina. La Ley Clim\u00e1tica difundi\u00f3 expectativas a largo plazo entre empresas e inversores. Los interconectores conectaron Dinamarca a las redes regionales, lo que apoy\u00f3 el balance y la transferencia de conocimiento.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La adopci\u00f3n de veh\u00edculos el\u00e9ctricos se aceler\u00f3 despu\u00e9s de que la pol\u00edtica se estabiliz\u00f3. Esa secuencia importa. Los incentivos predecibles apoyaron la difusi\u00f3n, mientras que las reglas inestables la hab\u00edan bloqueado antes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lo que hizo el estado.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

El estado establece la direcci\u00f3n y las reglas.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

El Estado dan\u00e9s marc\u00f3 la direcci\u00f3n a trav\u00e9s de pactos multipartidistas sostenidos y objetivos vinculantes. Los acuerdos energ\u00e9ticos de 2008, 2012 y 2018 consolidaron la expansi\u00f3n de las renovables y los cronogramas de subastas. La Ley Clim\u00e1tica de 2020 convirti\u00f3 los compromisos a largo plazo en ley y aplic\u00f3 ciclos de pol\u00edticas anuales a trav\u00e9s de la Rueda del A\u00f1o. Las subastas y las garant\u00edas de ingresos a largo plazo dieron forma al mercado al hacer que los proyectos fueran viables en condiciones inciertas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Las subastas y garant\u00edas crearon un entorno de inversi\u00f3n m\u00e1s predecible. Tambi\u00e9n explica la divisi\u00f3n entre sectores. Energ\u00eda avanz\u00f3 m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido porque las reglas se mantuvieron visibles y duraderas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El estado pag\u00f3 por servicios clave del sistema.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

El estado financi\u00f3 infraestructura clave<\/a> y la integraci\u00f3n de sistemas coordinada. Energinet invirti\u00f3 en interconexiones de alta tensi\u00f3n, lo que ayud\u00f3 a Dinamarca a operar como un centro el\u00e9ctrico transfronterizo. El gasto p\u00fablico tambi\u00e9n apoy\u00f3 la calefacci\u00f3n urbana a trav\u00e9s de subsidios para el reemplazo de calderas y la implementaci\u00f3n de bombas de calor. Estos servicios redujeron los costos de transici\u00f3n y mantuvieron el sistema funcionando a medida que se expand\u00eda la energ\u00eda renovable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La reforma fiscal cambi\u00f3 qui\u00e9n pagaba. El apoyo pas\u00f3 de los aranceles a la tributaci\u00f3n general, aliviando la presi\u00f3n sobre las facturas de los consumidores y preservando los flujos de inversi\u00f3n. La pol\u00edtica de transporte limpio tambi\u00e9n incluy\u00f3 deducciones fiscales para veh\u00edculos el\u00e9ctricos y menores impuestos a la electricidad para la infraestructura de carga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El estado aprendi\u00f3, pero no de manera uniforme.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

El estado mostr\u00f3 un aprendizaje continuo de pol\u00edticas y gesti\u00f3n de riesgos. El fracaso del impuesto a los veh\u00edculos el\u00e9ctricos en 2016 llev\u00f3 a una recalibraci\u00f3n, luego a congelamientos y finalmente a una implementaci\u00f3n gradual para restaurar el impulso del mercado. La adquisici\u00f3n de energ\u00eda e\u00f3lica marina tambi\u00e9n cambi\u00f3 con el tiempo. Los Contratos por Diferencia (CfD) regresaron cuando las condiciones del mercado cambiaron, porque las subastas por s\u00ed solas ya no ofrec\u00edan suficiente certeza.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La asunci\u00f3n de riesgos p\u00fablicos se extendi\u00f3 m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de las subastas. El Estado asumi\u00f3 participaciones en copropiedad en grandes proyectos y absorbi\u00f3 riesgos iniciales en Power-to-X e islas energ\u00e9ticas. Tambi\u00e9n elimin\u00f3 gradualmente el gravamen PSO. Sin embargo, los retrasos en el desarrollo de las islas de transporte y energ\u00eda muestran los l\u00edmites de la capacidad de adaptaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00bfQu\u00e9 significa esto para ALC?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Primero, la restricci\u00f3n principal no es la tecnolog\u00eda, sino la coordinaci\u00f3n entre ciclos pol\u00edticos. Los pactos multipartidistas estabilizaron las expectativas y permitieron la reasignaci\u00f3n de capital a largo plazo. Sin eso, las subastas por s\u00ed solas fracasar\u00e1n. Las subastas de energ\u00edas renovables de Brasil demuestran c\u00f3mo la contrataci\u00f3n competitiva reiterada puede aumentar la inversi\u00f3n cuando las reglas se mantienen cre\u00edbles, mientras que Chile y Uruguay muestran el valor de los acuerdos entre partidos y entre per\u00edodos que abarcan administraciones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En segundo lugar, la secuencia importa. Dinamarca utiliz\u00f3 subastas solo despu\u00e9s de haber establecido objetivos pol\u00edticos cre\u00edbles y marcos de reparto de riesgos. Eso sugiere que se necesita inversi\u00f3n dirigida temprana antes de que la competencia del mercado pueda funcionar bien. En tercer lugar, la estabilidad de las pol\u00edticas es lo m\u00e1s importante en los sectores nuevos. Los cambios fiscales abruptos, como lo demostr\u00f3 el impuesto a los veh\u00edculos el\u00e9ctricos, pueden colapsar un mercado emergente y retrasar la difusi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cuarto, la electrificaci\u00f3n no avanza a la misma velocidad en todos los sectores. El \u00e9xito de Dinamarca en el sector el\u00e9ctrico contrast\u00f3 con su lento avance en el transporte. Esa brecha muestra c\u00f3mo las instituciones espec\u00edficas de cada sector configuran los resultados. Quinto, la mitigaci\u00f3n de riesgos sigue siendo importante en los mercados maduros de energ\u00edas renovables. Incluso a medida que los costos disminuyeron, los grandes proyectos a\u00fan necesitaban garant\u00edas de ingresos y co-inversi\u00f3n estatal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finalmente, con el tiempo emergen restricciones ocultas. La dependencia de la biomasa, la congesti\u00f3n de la red y los retrasos en la infraestructura muestran c\u00f3mo los primeros \u00e9xitos pueden crear nuevos cuellos de botella. La lecci\u00f3n central es la misma que en el cambio de energ\u00eda liderado por subastas de Dinamarca y el rezago en el transporte. Los responsables pol\u00edticos en Am\u00e9rica Latina y el Caribe necesitan una gobernanza adaptativa que pueda seguir ajust\u00e1ndose a medida que las restricciones cambian.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Auctions worked, transport stalled. Denmark’s energy transition matters now because many countries face the same constraint: how to shift capital out of fossil systems without breaking markets. The contrast is stark. Denmark built one of the world’s most auction-driven renewable power systems, but transport electrification lagged for years. The main barrier was not technology. The […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":278841165,"featured_media":1551,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvdGVjaHJldmxhYy5vcmdcL3dwLWNvbnRlbnRcL3VwbG9hZHNcLzIwMjZcLzA1XC9TY3JlZW5zaG90LTIwMjYtMDUtMjEtYXQtMS4yMC4wNi1QTS0xMDI0eDU1OS5wbmciLCJ0eHQiOiJIb3cgRGVubWFyayBTaGlmdGVkIHRvIFJlbmV3YWJsZSBFbmVyZ3kuIiwidGVtcGxhdGUiOiJoaWdod2F5IiwiZm9udCI6IiIsImJsb2dfaWQiOjI1MzY0MTgzMn0.bfUiY7iG5xd5RwI_1Cmkq7vuVuSm4fLbiQSGL06bvOAMQ"},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1712],"tags":[1610,1614,1611,1612,1384,1613,1377,1424],"class_list":["post-1548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-policy-brief","tag-denmark","tag-electric-vehicles","tag-electrification","tag-energy-auctions","tag-energy-transition","tag-offshore-wind","tag-public-investment","tag-renewable-electricity"],"yoast_head":"\nDenmark 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Para 2024, los veh\u00edculos el\u00e9ctricos representaron m\u00e1s de 1 de cada 10 nuevas matr\u00edculas, impulsados casi en su totalidad por electricidad renovable. El pa\u00eds logr\u00f3 esto sin dinero del petr\u00f3leo, sin una base industrial masiva y a lo largo de dos grandes transiciones pol\u00edticas. 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